The behavior of commodity prices in Ethiopia

In an attempt to identify price stabilization strategies and rationalize public intervention in buffering markets, this article investigates the intertemporal dynamics of commodity prices in Ethiopia. A classical rational expectation model is modified to account for seasonal correlation of shocks. Model predictions are reduced to computable periodic threshold autoregression. Several nonlinearity tests are applied to detect threshold effects. A regime‐switching normalized maximum likelihood method is formulated to estimate thresholds and threshold autoregression parameters using monthly data from Ethiopia for the period 1996–2006. The result indicates the presence of periodic price thresholds that could be formed as a result of speculative storage. Comparison of price movements below and above thresholds indicates that prices are more correlated below the thresholds than above them. However, the effect on error variance is not very strong. Temporal arbitrage, which is the gross return from speculative storage, appears to be modest. The long‐ and short‐term implications of the findings are discussed within the context of ongoing policy debates.     

The rise and fall of a National Safety Promotion Programme:the case of Sweden

In 1982, when Sweden got a new Health Service Act, the health sector was given a new role - to collect, analyse and actively disseminate the knowledge it gained. A National Safety Promotion Programme was build up by the National Board for Health and Welfare, and a National Inter-sector Cooperation Group and medical advisory board were established. In 1992, the programme was transferred to the National Institute of Public Health. Later the Institute was given a new role and therefore the programme was relocated to the Swedish Rescue Service Agency. In some aspects we can see a parallel with the paradigm that was behind the Civil Protection Act 2003 and the Health Service Act 1982. It was a logic consequence to move the national programme to the rescue service sector. Within the National Rescue Service Agency the programme ended up in the line organisation, which lacked a cross-sector work orientation. The programme was closed down. In the article the reason for the decisions is described and also the background and the possibilities for the programme to act in different national boards as well as the preconditions for an inter-sector group.     

Taxation of interest in the European Union

Having struggled for a number of years with formulating a directive concerning the treatment of interest payments from financial institutions in member countries to persons resident in other member countries, the ministers of finance of the EU countries reached a compromise in November 2000. Rather than being a solution, however, what is now on the table might well amount to the opening of a Pandora's box of new problems.     

Guest Editors' Introduction

abstract   This introductory paper provides a background to the origins, themes and papers of this Special Issue on Micro Strategy and Strategizing. Our overarching argument is that, while the field of strategy has traditionally concentrated on the macro-level of organizations, it needs now to attend to much more micro-level phenomena. We propose an activity-based view of strategy that focuses on the detailed processes and practices which constitute the day-to-day activities of organizational life and which relate to strategic outcomes. The paper develops this view by considering two bodies of theory, those of the resource based view and institutionalism; two bodies of empirical work, those on corporate diversification and structure; and finally the process tradition of strategy research. The paper identifies the benefits of the activity-based view and introduces some challenges for further research. It concludes by introducing the papers in this Special Issue.     

Medium-term EU integration impacts on Norwegian agriculture: A partial equilibrium analysis

The paper analyses and discusses possible impacts on Norwegian agriculture of an EU membership based on the regionalized agricultural sector model CAPRI. Norwegian agriculture is characterized by a small-scale farming structure and high levels of support. Previous analyses have shown that Norwegian agriculture is expected to undergo dramatic changes because of EU membership in terms of farm income, production and structural change. Our study indicates that a substantial share of the agricultural production can be maintained at the national level. Milk and crop production may remain largely unaffected, while meat production decreases in the range of 10-20% compared to a reference run without membership. However, a reduction in total farm income by about 40% indicates that structural adjustments will follow EU accession. The results are discussed in view of the pattern of adjustments observed in Finland and Austria after EU accession in 1995. The need for the dairy industry to take advantage of the improved market access is stressed. Attention is also called to some strengths and limitations of the CAPRI model to analyse large-scale policy changes and to identify model improvements as an area of future research.     

Ideas on Organizing Municipalities

Abstract

The research tries to explain the contrasting pictures presented by two recent articles published in Public Management Review: Tonnisson and Wilson (2007 Tonnisson, C. and Wilson, J. 2007. Best Value in Transitional Countries?. Public Management Review, 9(1): 87–106. [Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Nemec, Merickova and Ochrana (2008 Nemec, J., Merickova, B. and Ochrana, F. 2008. Introducing Benchmarking in the Czech Republic and Slovakia: Processes, Problems and Lessons. Public Management Review, 10(5): 674–84.  [Google Scholar]). The data suggest that the research methodology has a major impact on the results, and in our case this factor is the main explanation for the differences between the results. Although the use of different research methodologies explains a lot of the inter-country variation in results, it does seem that the benchmarking situation, particularly for local service delivery in Czechia and Slovakia, is less satisfactory than in Estonia.     

Wirtschaftspolitik für die Eurozone

At the root of the euro crisis was not only a sovereign debt crisis but also a balance-of-payments crisis. A multi-faceted approach is required to restore sustainable growth and prevent a vicious circle of public and private sector deleveraging leading to weaker economic activity, which in turn results in a further deterioration in banks’ asset quality. Both governments and the European Central Bank (ECB) face challenges. Governments must make progress in restoring the health and resilience of the banking sector and introduce microeconomic reforms in product, services and labour markets to reduce divergent trends in competitiveness and productivity. Budgetary discipline must be respected, and the ECB should avoid any deflationary bias while stabilising inflation at or around two per cent for the euro area as a whole.     

Optimal use of forecasts in economic policy decisions: An empirical test

A criterion for optimal use of forecasts of exogenous variables in a linear policy model with quadratic preferences is given, based on Johansen (1972). By calculating regressions of observed values with respect to raw forecast values used in the observation period, equations are established which can be used to transform raw forecasts into ‘certainty equivalents’. The method is applied to data from national budgeting and corresponding national accounts in Norway 1948–-1971. Especially the forecasts for the volume of exports, but also for import prices, could be considerably improved, for policy purposes in the context of the model of the type mentioned, by the transformation described. Some of the forecasts, when optimally transformed, should be permitted to fluctuate more strongly and thereby influence policy more strongly. Some tentative results for Sweden and the Netherlands are briefly mentioned and compared with the evidence for Norway.     

Optimization under non-linear constraints

In this paper a time saving method is proposed for maximising likelihood functions when the parameter space is subject to non-linear constraints, expressable as second order polynomials. The suggested approach is especially attractive when dealing with systems with many parameters.